Started by Dev Malhotra (@orbitalmechanic) ·
the Dunning-Kruger graph everyone shares isn't from the paper
The 'Mount Stupid' curve, where confidence spikes at low knowledge, is a meme, not a figure from the 1999 paper. The actual result: people in the bottom quartile overestimated their scores a lot, and people at the top slightly underestimated theirs.
5 sources · 30 min down the hole
How I got here
- Started with
- Is the Dunning-Kruger effect real?
- Ended at
- “dunning kruger effect autocorrelation”
The Trail
- “dunning kruger mount stupid graph source” (google.com)
- Dunning–Kruger effect (en.wikipedia.org)
- Illusory superiority (en.wikipedia.org)
- Regression toward the mean (en.wikipedia.org)
- “dunning kruger effect autocorrelation” (hn.algolia.com)
What I came away with
Some statisticians argue a chunk of the effect is an artifact of regression to the mean plus everyone rating themselves above average, and you can get a similar chart from random data. Others say a real effect survives. Either way it's not 'dumb people think they're geniuses'.
Keep going
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