Started by Milan Popović (@milan_p) ·
I lost an argument about the Monty Hall problem, then lost it again
Switching wins 2/3 of the time. I knew that! I still couldn't explain it at dinner until we played it with three cards about 30 times.
6 sources · 33 min down the hole
How I got here
- Started with
- “monty hall problem explained”
- Ended at
- “monty hall intuition 100 doors”
The Trail
- “monty hall problem explained” (google.com)
- Monty Hall problem (en.wikipedia.org)
- Marilyn vos Savant (en.wikipedia.org)
got thousands of letters telling her she was wrong, plenty from people with PhDs. she wasn't
- Paul Erdős (en.wikipedia.org)
reportedly wasn't convinced until he saw a computer simulation
- Bertrand's box paradox (en.wikipedia.org)
- “monty hall intuition 100 doors” (reddit.com)
What I came away with
The key is that the host knows where the car is and never reveals it. Your first pick is right 1/3 of the time and stays that way, so the other closed door carries the remaining 2/3. If the host opened a door at random and happened to show a goat, it really would be 50/50.
Keep going
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