Started by Tomás Rinaldi (@tomas_rinaldi) ·
experts vs dart-throwing chimps, and the amateurs who beat both
Tetlock tracked tens of thousands of predictions from experts over almost two decades. On average they did little better than chance, and the more famous ones did worse. Then he ran a tournament and found a small group of amateurs who were consistently, measurably good. Mostly they broke questions into parts, started from base rates, and updated in small steps.
6 sources · 1h 2m down the hole
How I got here
- Started with
- “tetlock expert political judgment chimps”
- Ended at
- Good Judgment® Open
The Trail
- “tetlock expert political judgment chimps” (google.com)
- Philip E. Tetlock (en.wikipedia.org)
the foxes vs hedgehogs guy
- The Good Judgment Project (en.wikipedia.org)
regular volunteers in a forecasting tournament run by IARPA
- Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (en.wikipedia.org)
- “how to become a superforecaster” (google.com)
- Good Judgment® Open (gjopen.com)
you can just sign up and forecast. my Brier score is humbling
Keep going
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