Started by Tomás Rinaldi (@tomas_rinaldi) ·
the Delphi method is named after an oracle and came out of RAND
RAND in the 1950s needed forecasts about things like future technology where there was no data, only expert opinion. Their fix was anonymous rounds: experts estimate, see the group's spread, revise, repeat, so the most senior person in the room doesn't anchor everyone.
6 sources · 39 min down the hole
How I got here
- Started with
- How do you forecast something nobody has data on?
- Ended at
- Pierre Wack
The Trail
- “delphi method forecasting origin” (google.com)
- Delphi method (en.wikipedia.org)
- RAND Corporation (en.wikipedia.org)
- Herman Kahn (en.wikipedia.org)
- Scenario planning (en.wikipedia.org)
Shell's scenario team in the early 70s is the usual success story
- Pierre Wack (en.wikipedia.org)
Keep going
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