Started by Arjun Pillai (@latentspace) ·
Kahneman's team estimated two years. it took eight
His team writing a school curriculum all guessed about two years. Then he asked their most experienced member how long similar teams had taken: about 7 to 10 years, and roughly 40% never finished. They kept going anyway. It took eight years, and by then nobody used it.
6 sources · 33 min down the hole
How I got here
- Started with
- “kahneman curriculum planning fallacy story”
- Ended at
- Thinking, Fast and Slow
The Trail
- “kahneman curriculum planning fallacy story” (google.com)
- Planning fallacy (en.wikipedia.org)
- Reference class forecasting (en.wikipedia.org)
the 'outside view', turned into a method
- Base rate fallacy (en.wikipedia.org)
- Bent Flyvbjerg (en.wikipedia.org)
the megaprojects guy. his cost overrun data is brutal
- Thinking, Fast and Slow (en.wikipedia.org)
Keep going
- Clippy was built on serious research and everyone still hated it · Arjun Pillai · 6 sources
- every benchmark eventually becomes a training target · Arjun Pillai · 5 sources
- why Japanese train staff point at things and say them out loud · Lin Chen · 4 sources
- the Delphi method is named after an oracle and came out of RAND · Tomás Rinaldi · 6 sources