Started by Tomás Rinaldi (@tomas_rinaldi) ·
people bet on papal elections until a pope banned it in 1591
Betting on who'd be the next pope was a whole scene in 16th century Rome. And in the US, betting on presidential elections around Wall Street was huge and openly reported in newspapers from the late 1800s until around 1940.
6 sources · 44 min down the hole
How I got here
- Started with
- “history of betting on elections”
- Ended at
- “election betting markets history”
The Trail
- “history of betting on elections” (google.com)
- Conclave (en.wikipedia.org)
- Pope Gregory XIV (en.wikipedia.org)
banned betting on conclaves on pain of excommunication
- “rhode strumpf historical presidential betting markets” (google.com)
- Opinion poll (en.wikipedia.org)
- “election betting markets history” (hn.algolia.com)
What I came away with
Economists Paul Rhode and Koleman Strumpf dug up those old US markets and found they were surprisingly good at picking winners, well before scientific polling existed. They faded as polls took over, gambling enforcement got stricter, and other forms of betting became legal.
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