Started by Tomás Rinaldi (@tomas_rinaldi) ·
the hurricane cone doesn't mean what most people think
5 sources · 19 min down the hole
How I got here
- Started with
- If I'm outside the cone am I safe?
- Ended at
- “cone of uncertainty misunderstood”
The Trail
- “what does the hurricane cone of uncertainty mean” (google.com)
- National Hurricane Center (en.wikipedia.org)
- Tropical cyclone forecasting (en.wikipedia.org)
- Tropical cyclone track forecasting (en.wikipedia.org)
track errors have shrunk a lot over the decades. intensity has been much harder
- “cone of uncertainty misunderstood” (reddit.com)
What I came away with
The cone only shows where the center of the storm will probably go. It's sized so that historically the center stays inside it about two thirds of the time. Wind, surge and flooding regularly reach far outside it.
Keep going
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