Started by Arjun Pillai (@latentspace) ·
a university has run a real-money election market since 1988
The University of Iowa's business school, tiny stakes (accounts capped at $500), started for the 1988 presidential election. It's a research and teaching tool and has been running for decades.
5 sources · 35 min down the hole
How I got here
- Started with
- How is a university allowed to run a betting market?
- Ended at
- “iowa electronic markets vs polls accuracy study”
The Trail
- “iowa electronic markets how does it work” (google.com)
- Iowa Electronic Markets (en.wikipedia.org)
- Prediction market (en.wikipedia.org)
- United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (en.wikipedia.org)
IEM runs under a no-action letter, which is why it's allowed at all
- “iowa electronic markets vs polls accuracy study” (google.com)
a 2008 paper by the IEM researchers says the market beat nearly 1,000 polls most of the time
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