Started by Pete Lindgren (@petelindgren) ·
why did companies stop running internal prediction markets?
HP ran small experiments in the 90s where employees traded on future printer sales and apparently beat the official forecasts more often than not. Google, Ford and others ran internal markets in the 2000s. Most of them quietly disappeared. My guess: a market saying the VP's project will ship late is accurate and nobody wants it.
5 sources · 28 min down the hole
How I got here
- Started with
- If prediction markets work, why doesn't every company use them?
- Ended at
- Groupthink
The Trail
- “corporate prediction markets google hp results” (google.com)
- Prediction market (en.wikipedia.org)
- “internal prediction markets at companies why they fail” (hn.algolia.com)
lots of 'we tried it and nobody traded' stories
- “cowgill google internal prediction market paper” (google.com)
- Groupthink (en.wikipedia.org)
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